Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Road Ahead

Dow                     10,365.45 

The Dow broke an important support level of 10440 which signals further downside. However, it’s likely that it would gain some ground before falling again. For the short term, 9700 is a very important level to watch. Only the worst of the news would pull the Dow below this level. I don’t think the financial turmoil is enough to pull Dow down below this level. Having said this, the long term bull market for the Dow is still intact.

S&P CNX Nifty 3921.20

An analysis of the charts of Nifty for the years 1996-99 shows a classic triple bottom. Hence, it was only a matter of time before the start of the major Bull Run. Late 2007 saw Nifty top; however there is nothing to signify the end of the long bull run. The next few days will be interesting to watch. If Nifty breaks 3817 decisively, then this would signal a further downfall to support level of 3576. If Nifty continues to rise, then there could be a case of a double bottom being formed. This could be the start of a fresh uptrend again! However, given the negative news flow and global economic scenario, it’s only a matter of time before 3576 would be tested.

 

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