Sell NIFTY

NIFTY

04:00 PM | 09 Dec 2011

4,866.7

Change:-76.95Change%:-1.56%

Open:4,870.75Prv. Close:4,943.65

Today:  4,841.75

52-Wk:  4,639.10

4,918.35

6,181.05

I mentioned in my post on Oct 2, 2010 on an impending crash and expensive valuations. I also stated that this would probably be the longest of the downturns, with no clear indications of up move. I also predicted that the last leg of bear run is yet to come and probably will not be anytime sooner. Looking at the Sensex charts, this would well be the last leg of fall and this is not going to end anytime sooner. With global economy showing no indications of bullishness, weakening rupee and rising interest rates aren't the best of the facilitating factors for bull run to start.

A weak rupee though may aid the results of companies focused on exports(IT, Pharma majorly), in my view, one needs to look at business fundamentals of these companies. With global clients wearing a cautious outlook, there is barely any growth in spending. Margins are thriving on currency or external factors than core business fundamentals. Given this, it would take a while before the next bull run begins. Governmental control in de-controlling currency fluctuations may not help in the long run.

Lets wait for the last leg of fall - this would be as much irritating with range bound movements as is now.

Saying Goodbye!

The world lost one of the great tech guys in history - Steve Jobs, someone who took the world by storm through his innovations. Just some time back, I was listening to his 2005 speech at Stanford - this was absolutely brilliant lessons taught in just over 15 min!!!

One of the best ways of saying "Goodbye" to the world - well, I would borrow a leaf of learning and say "Live like its your last day and do all that you would as though there is no tomorrow"!

Infosys (NSE) 2989.50 -316.70 (-9.58%)

What a day in history - two key people who have managed to do what no one else can dream have decided to make way for the younger generation. K Dinesh and Mohandas Pai move on after having built a legacy. While the markets gave a thumbs down to the stock, its important to note that this move has more to do with internal emotions and very little to do with business.

When individuals of this nature are associated with a company which has managed to have a dream run delivering consistent growth year after year, its a proud feeling of achievement which ticks along. Next in line would be the founder NRN, who would retire by August '11. The business remains unaffected by such changes - my own experience validates the quote "Org is always greater than the individual". I personally believe IT is a mature business now and hence you can not expect a 100% YOY returns out of a stock like Infosys. Infosys would continue to deliver 15-20% growth YOY in line with FMCG businesses. As it enters the big league to compete with global majors like IBM and Accenture, its important to be logical and conservative in terms of return expectations out of a stock like Infosys. Enter the stock if the expectation is 10-15% returns and if the view is long term.